“Rumors of Christian higher education’s (CHE’s) demise have been greatly exaggerated,” so says Perry Glanzer over at Christian Scholar’s Review. He cites new numbers from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) saying enrollment at Christian colleges was up in 2024 (the latest year for which comprehensive data are available). His conclusion: “The negative reporting and scare-mongering about college closures is a case study in how not to do redemptive journalism.”
Photo by Kübra Arslaner via Unsplash+
I assume he is talking about us, among others. MinistryWatch has written extensively about the troubles facing Christian higher education — and while these new data are interesting, they do not erase the very real troubles facing higher education in the years ahead.
Glanzer and his colleagues are essentially accurate that we have seen an increase in college enrollment in the past couple of years. He writes, “Catholic and Protestant Christian higher education enrollment, as I define it in a book co-authored with Ted Cockle and Jess Martin, “Christian Higher Education: An Empirical Guide,” grew 1.6% between Fall 2023 and Fall 2024. Moreover, enrollment at Protestant institutions alone expanded by 2.4% overall that year.”
That sounds good until you note that the number of college-age Americans (ages 18-24) grew by about 1.1%, and total college enrollment grew by about 3.3%. In other words, Christian college enrollment barely kept up with population growth, and it lagged secular college enrollment.
It’s also important to look at these numbers in a broader context. Enrollment at both secular and Christian colleges is down significantly from its 2010 peak of more than 21 million students. From 2010 to 2021, the numbers fell slowly but steadily each year. In 2021, during the depths of the COVID shutdowns, college enrollment stood at 18.66 million, its lowest level in 20 years. So, what we have seen in the past couple of years is, at least in part, simply a post-COVID recovery, and not much of a recovery, at that.
So, I would call the modest growth in the past couple of years not so much “good news,” but a reprieve from unrelenting bad news.
But even if you accept as “good news” this modest growth, you should dig into the numbers if you want to learn the real lessons. The growth depends almost completely on a few outliers.
Among these outliers are Grand Canyon University and Liberty University, both of which were early adopters of — and heavy investors in — distance learning. Toccoa Falls College in Georgia has grown 233% over the past decade, Campbellsville University posted 216% growth, Southeastern University saw 200% growth, and Columbia International University had 164% growth. In every case, asymmetric factors that can’t easily be duplicated elsewhere caused the growth.
Access to MinistryWatch content is free. However, we hope you will support our work with your prayers and financial gifts. To make a donation, click here.
According to data guru Ryan Burge, “Campbellsville is probably the clearest example. It has built a very large graduate operation that includes thousands of international students. So, when we see enrollment growth of 200% or more at some of these institutions, we should be cautious about interpreting that as a resurgence in demand among 18-year-old residential students.” Burge noted that the enrollment of international students is at risk from new policies of the Trump administration. Schools like Campbellsville could see declines that are as significant as its growth.
Toccoa Falls College (TFC) is another example of a school that has a growth strategy that will not be easily duplicated elsewhere. Toccoa Falls has become a significant participant in Georgia’s state-funded Dual Enrollment program, which pays for eligible high school students to take college courses. More than a quarter of TFC’s students are dual enrollment students.
Now, don’t get me wrong. I’m not criticizing the program at all. In fact, I think it’s brilliant. Under the leadership of President Robert Myers, the school has become aggressive in its search for new strategies. Another example would be Paul Mauer’s leadership of Montreat College, in North Carolina, which has had national success with its new cybersecurity program. The school’s turnaround has been called “The Montreat Miracle.”
All of this causes Ryan Burge to conclude, “I think the growth story at Christian colleges is a little more complicated than the topline numbers suggest.”
That could be the understatement of the year. In addition to all the other factors I’ve mentioned here, there’s also the reality that lots of college-age students and their parents are questioning the value of a college degree. A recent survey says 42% of Gen Z workers are turning to trades, many of which don’t require four-year degrees.
So, is the demise of Christian higher education imminent? No. But are the dire predictions about the future of Christian higher education merely “scaremongering,” as Glanzer asserts? Also, unfortunately, no.
It will take creative and bold leadership among Christian college administrators to survive the demographic cliff and the increasing secularization of our culture. A remnant will survive, perhaps more than a remnant.
But make no mistake. Christian higher education may not be dying, but it is in trouble. A great sifting and winnowing among Christian colleges is upon us. To say so out loud is not “scaremongering.” And pretending otherwise is not helpful for Christian leaders who have to deal with this new reality.
TO OUR READERS: The mission of MinistryWatch is to help Christian donors become more faithful stewards of the resources God has entrusted to them. Do you know of a story that will help us fulfill our mission, or do you want to give us feedback about this or any other story? If so, please email us at info@ministrywatch.com.