ANALYSIS—The MinistryWatch Index has been essentially flat since the first of the year, rising just 1.2% since January 1 following a .3% drop in March.
The drop possibly reflects ongoing concern about the state of the economy.
The tepid performance this year follows a rise of just 7.8% for all of 2025.
The MinistryWatch Index is based on the revenue of 38 large Christian ministries, ministries that represent all the 22 ministry segments tracked by MinistryWatch.
A recent survey conducted by MinistryWatch of ministry executives found that fundraising has now replaced finding and recruiting staff as their top leadership concern. But that could just reflect a looser labor market, the rise of artificial intelligence, and a diminished concern about finding talent.
Indeed, most Christian ministry executives who responded to the MinistryWatch quarterly survey in February — 66% — are optimistic about the U.S. economy, saying it will not enter a recession in the next year.
That is a stark change from November, when almost half of the respondents said they believe that the U.S. economy is already in a recession or will enter a recessionary period in the next six months to a year. Now, only about 16% of respondents believe the economy is either in a recession or will enter one in the next six months.
About 18% think the country will enter a recession in the next year, down from 26% in November’s survey and 23% in August 2025.
But attitudes — and giving — seem to rise and fall based on the performance of the stock market. Studies by Giving USA, suggest that philanthropic giving correlates closely to the rise and fall in value of the major stock markets. For the past year or more, the markets have been giving mixed signals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 1% since the first of the year, but it is up about 18% from this time a year ago. The MinistryWatch Index was up about 8% during that same period.
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