Christian ministry executives tend to overestimate future revenue growth and underestimate declines, according to MinistryWatch’s quarterly survey of ministry leaders.
A trend has emerged when comparing leaders’ expectations for the next 12 months with their actual results a year later: In 10 of the 12 surveys compared, more leaders expected an increase than actually experienced one.
For example, in January 2023, 71% of ministry leaders said they expected revenue to increase by at least 1%. Twelve months later, in January 2024, only 61% said their actual revenue had increased by at least that much.
Expectations for increased revenue were off by at least 10 percentage points in six of the 12 surveys compared.
The October 2023 and October 2024 surveys produced identical results: 62% of leaders expected revenue to increase in the coming year, and 62% reported an increase over the previous year.
One exception to the trend came in January 2026, when 75% of leaders reported that their revenue had increased over the previous 12 months. That compares with the 70% of leaders who, in January 2025, expected their revenue to increase over the following 12 months.
Predictions of Decreased Revenue
When predicting declines, ministry leaders often missed the mark by wide margins. In every survey comparison since October 2022, fewer leaders expected revenue to decline over the next year than actually experienced a decline during that period.
For example, in January 2024, only 5% of ministry leaders expected their revenue to decline. A year later, in January 2025, 21% reported that their revenue had declined.
Flat Revenue Predictions
Predictions about flat revenue also differed from actual results, though usually by smaller margins. In several cases, more leaders predicted flat revenue than reported no change the following year.
For example, in January 2024, 24% of leaders expected revenue to remain flat, but only 18% reported no change a year later.
The quarterly surveys also ask ministry leaders about other trends affecting their work, including their use of artificial intelligence.
Leaders Using Artificial Intelligence (AI)
MinistryWatch began asking Christian ministry leaders in February 2026 about their use of artificial intelligence, or AI, in their jobs. The percentage of leaders who said they personally use the technology every day increased from 12% in February 2026 to 37% in August 2026.
The percentage of leaders who say they use AI “almost never” decreased from 15% to 5% over that same period.
The MinistryWatch survey results align with a study Bonterra and Hanover Research published last year. The researchers found that 69% of nonprofit respondents were already using AI tools, while 91% of funder respondents said they “expect to see positive impact from AI within the next three years.”
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